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Argus Edge

Argus-style prediction market edge detection and betting strategy.

Rating: 4.9 (379 reviews)
Downloads: 15,033 downloads
Version: 1.0.0

Overview

Argus-style prediction market edge detection and betting strategy.

Complete Documentation

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Argus Edge — Prediction Market Betting Engine

The complete Argus strategy for finding and exploiting edge in crypto prediction markets.

Core Formula

text

Edge = our_P(win) - market_implied_P(win)
Bet when: edge ≥ 10% AND fresh market (<30 min old) AND TA score ≥ ±2
Kelly stake = (edge × bankroll) / odds

Strategy Rules

Freshness Guard

Skip markets >92% consensus (dead signal, L020)
Prioritize markets <30 min old (primary window)
Primary bets WR: 77.8% vs overall 56.6%

Counter-Consensus Rule (L023)

TA score ≥+1 + market DOWN >80% + ≥20 min remaining → bet UP (counter-consensus has positive EV, validated at 5x+ payout)

Asset Calibration

Asset	TA Reliability	Bias	Min Score
BTC	0.75	Neutral	±3
ETH	0.80	UP+0.05	±2
SOL	0.90	UP+0.05	±1
XRP	0.70	UP+0.08	±2

Usage

text

Use argus-edge to find the best Polymarket bet right now

Use argus-edge to calculate edge on BTC 11am ET market

Use argus-edge for full market scan with Kelly sizing

Battle-Tested

Derived from 100+ live Polymarket bets. 25 documented lessons (L001–L025).

Installation

Terminal bash


openclaw install argus-edge

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💻Code Examples

Kelly stake = (edge × bankroll) / odds

kelly-stake--edge--bankroll--odds.txt

## Strategy Rules

### Freshness Guard
- Skip markets >92% consensus (dead signal, L020)
- Prioritize markets <30 min old (primary window)
- Primary bets WR: 77.8% vs overall 56.6%

### Counter-Consensus Rule (L023)
TA score ≥+1 + market DOWN >80% + ≥20 min remaining → bet UP (counter-consensus has positive EV, validated at 5x+ payout)

### Asset Calibration
| Asset | TA Reliability | Bias | Min Score |
|-------|---------------|------|-----------|
| BTC | 0.75 | Neutral | ±3 |
| ETH | 0.80 | UP+0.05 | ±2 |
| SOL | 0.90 | UP+0.05 | ±1 |
| XRP | 0.70 | UP+0.08 | ±2 |

## Usage

example.txt

Edge = our_P(win) - market_implied_P(win)
Bet when: edge ≥ 10% AND fresh market (<30 min old) AND TA score ≥ ±2
Kelly stake = (edge × bankroll) / odds

example.txt

Use argus-edge to find the best Polymarket bet right now

Use argus-edge to calculate edge on BTC 11am ET market

Use argus-edge for full market scan with Kelly sizing