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Rollhub Analyst

Research and backtest gambling strategies on provably fair crypto casino.

Rating: 4.7 (134 reviews)
Downloads: 821 downloads
Version: 1.0.0

Overview

Research and backtest gambling strategies on provably fair crypto casino.

✨Key Features

Place micro-bets

Track results

Apply strategy logic

Calculate statistics

Verify all bets

Generate report

Complete Documentation

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Gambling Analyst

Research and backtest gambling strategies on provably fair crypto casino. Analyze Martingale, Kelly Criterion, D'Alembert, Anti-Martingale, Flat Bet strategies with real data. Statistical analysis, variance tracking, drawdown calculation, win rate optimization. Gambling research tool, casino strategy analyzer, probability simulator, crypto betting analysis, risk management, bankroll optimization, expected value calculator, Monte Carlo simulation, strategy backtesting, agent.rollhub.com provably fair API.

Overview

This skill lets you research, analyze, and backtest gambling strategies on Agent Casino using real micro-bets with provably fair verification.

API Base

text

https://agent.rollhub.com/api/v1

Registration

bash

curl -X POST https://agent.rollhub.com/api/v1/register \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"name": "analyst-agent", "ref": "ref_27fcab61"}'

5 Built-in Strategies

1. Flat Bet

Bet the same amount every round. Baseline strategy.

Bet: constant B
EV per round: B × (RTP - 1)

2. Martingale

Double bet after each loss, reset after win.

Start: B, after loss: 2×B, after win: reset to B
Risk: exponential bankroll requirement
Goal: recover all losses with one win

3. Anti-Martingale (Paroli)

Double bet after each win, reset after loss.

Captures winning streaks
Lower risk than Martingale

4. D'Alembert

Increase bet by 1 unit after loss, decrease by 1 after win.

Smoother progression than Martingale
Lower variance

5. Kelly Criterion

Bet optimal fraction of bankroll: f* = (bp - q) / b

b = odds, p = win probability, q = 1 - p
Mathematically optimal for bankroll growth
Requires edge (positive EV)

See references/strategies.md for detailed math.

Running a Backtest

Step 1: Place micro-bets

bash

# Place 100 coinflip bets at minimum amount
for i in $(seq 1 100); do
  curl -s -X POST https://agent.rollhub.com/api/v1/bet \
    -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
    -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
    -d '{"game": "coinflip", "amount": 1, "choice": "heads"}'
  echo ""
done

Step 2: Track results

For each bet, record:

bet_id, amount, won, payout, result
Running balance, drawdown, cumulative profit

Step 3: Apply strategy logic

Simulate each strategy against the same sequence of outcomes:

Flat Bet: constant wager
Martingale: double on loss
Anti-Martingale: double on win
D'Alembert: +1/-1 unit
Kelly: fraction of current bankroll

Step 4: Calculate statistics

For each strategy:

Win Rate: wins / total bets
Variance: σ² of per-bet profit
Max Drawdown: largest peak-to-trough decline
Sharpe Ratio: mean return / σ (risk-adjusted)
Expected Value: average profit per bet
Bankroll curve: plot balance over time

Step 5: Verify all bets

bash

curl https://agent.rollhub.com/api/v1/verify/<bet_id>

Every bet is provably fair — verify the SHA3-384 hash chain.

Step 6: Generate report

Use the report template to generate a markdown comparison report.

Quick Run

bash

bash scripts/analyst.sh coinflip 100 1  # game, rounds, bet_amount

Statistical Metrics Explained

Metric	Formula	Meaning
Win Rate	W/N	Fraction of bets won
EV	Σ(profit)/N	Average profit per bet
Variance	Σ(xi-μ)²/N	Spread of outcomes
Std Dev	√Variance	Volatility
Sharpe	EV/StdDev	Risk-adjusted return
Max Drawdown	max(peak-trough)	Worst losing streak impact
RTP	Total payouts / Total wagered	Return to player

Keywords

Gambling strategy backtesting, Martingale analysis, Kelly Criterion calculator, D'Alembert simulation, casino strategy research, win rate optimization, variance tracking, drawdown analysis, Sharpe ratio gambling, expected value calculator, Monte Carlo simulation, bankroll management, risk analysis, provably fair verification, crypto casino analytics, agent.rollhub.com API.

Installation

Terminal bash


openclaw install rollhub-analyst

Copied!

💻Code Examples

-d '{"name": "analyst-agent", "ref": "ref_27fcab61"}'

--d-name-analyst-agent-ref-ref27fcab61.txt

## 5 Built-in Strategies

### 1. Flat Bet
Bet the same amount every round. Baseline strategy.
- Bet: constant `B`
- EV per round: `B × (RTP - 1)`

### 2. Martingale
Double bet after each loss, reset after win.
- Start: `B`, after loss: `2×B`, after win: reset to `B`
- Risk: exponential bankroll requirement
- Goal: recover all losses with one win

### 3. Anti-Martingale (Paroli)
Double bet after each win, reset after loss.
- Captures winning streaks
- Lower risk than Martingale

### 4. D'Alembert
Increase bet by 1 unit after loss, decrease by 1 after win.
- Smoother progression than Martingale
- Lower variance

### 5. Kelly Criterion
Bet optimal fraction of bankroll: `f* = (bp - q) / b`
- `b` = odds, `p` = win probability, `q` = 1 - p
- Mathematically optimal for bankroll growth
- Requires edge (positive EV)

See [references/strategies.md](references/strategies.md) for detailed math.

## Running a Backtest

### Step 1: Place micro-bets

done

done.txt

### Step 2: Track results

For each bet, record:
- `bet_id`, `amount`, `won`, `payout`, `result`
- Running balance, drawdown, cumulative profit

### Step 3: Apply strategy logic

Simulate each strategy against the same sequence of outcomes:
- Flat Bet: constant wager
- Martingale: double on loss
- Anti-Martingale: double on win
- D'Alembert: +1/-1 unit
- Kelly: fraction of current bankroll

### Step 4: Calculate statistics

For each strategy:
- **Win Rate**: wins / total bets
- **Variance**: σ² of per-bet profit
- **Max Drawdown**: largest peak-to-trough decline
- **Sharpe Ratio**: mean return / σ (risk-adjusted)
- **Expected Value**: average profit per bet
- **Bankroll curve**: plot balance over time

### Step 5: Verify all bets

curl https://agent.rollhub.com/api/v1/verify/<bet_id>

curl-httpsagentrollhubcomapiv1verifybetid.txt

Every bet is provably fair — verify the SHA3-384 hash chain.

### Step 6: Generate report

Use the [report template](references/report-template.md) to generate a markdown comparison report.

## Quick Run

example.sh

curl -X POST https://agent.rollhub.com/api/v1/register \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"name": "analyst-agent", "ref": "ref_27fcab61"}'

example.sh

# Place 100 coinflip bets at minimum amount
for i in $(seq 1 100); do
  curl -s -X POST https://agent.rollhub.com/api/v1/bet \
    -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
    -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
    -d '{"game": "coinflip", "amount": 1, "choice": "heads"}'
  echo ""
done